Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Mafra vs Thiago Perpétuo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record9-4-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kings MMATeamFuracao Fight Team

What's at stake

Thiago Perpétuo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Mafra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leonardo MafraNow 1473
If they win+27→ 1500
If they lose-21→ 1452
Thiago PerpétuoNow 1524
If they win+21→ 1545
If they lose-27→ 1497

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
5.39
48%
Strike accuracy
70%
4.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.51
44%
Strike defense
51%
2.12
Takedown avg.
2.82
83%
Takedown accuracy
50%
69%
Takedown defense
67%
0.42
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Leonardo MafraThiago Perpétuo
145015001550201320142015

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
1 (7%)
Submission
1 (11%)
5 (33%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Perpétuo53%
Leonardo Mafra 47%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Perpétuo a 53% favorite over Leonardo Mafra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Thiago Perpétuo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1524 to 1473, a 51-point edge.

Thiago Perpétuo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Leonardo Mafra finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Perpétuo 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.