Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Mafra vs Tysen Herken

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record0-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kings MMA· 1672 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamIronworks Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Leonardo MafraNow 1473
If they win+24→ 1497
If they lose-24→ 1449
Tysen HerkenNow 1476
If they win+24→ 1500
If they lose-24→ 1452

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
44%
Strike defense
TBD
2.12
Takedown avg.
TBD
83%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
69%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.42
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Leonardo MafraTysen Herken
14501500201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (7%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (33%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Tysen Herken67%
Leonardo Mafra 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tysen Herken a 67% favorite over Leonardo Mafra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1473 vs 1476), separated by just 3 points.

Leonardo Mafra finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.