Leonardo Santos vs Logan Paxton
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamNick Diaz Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo SantosLogan Paxton
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Logan Paxton84%
Leonardo Santos 16%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Logan Paxton a 84% favorite over Leonardo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Santos's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1678), separated by just 0 points.
Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Santos finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Logan Paxton 90%.
Leonardo Santos carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.