Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-1Record13-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75"Reach39,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamBoets MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Leonardo SantosNow 1678
If they win+17→ 1695
If they lose-15→ 1663
Roman BogatovNow 1691
If they win+15→ 1706
If they lose-17→ 1674

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.33
47%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
54%
Strike defense
45%
0.88
Takedown avg.
1
26%
Takedown accuracy
9%
87%
Takedown defense
50%
0.25
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Leonardo SantosRoman Bogatov
17001750202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (18%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
9 (53%)
Submission
5 (42%)
5 (29%)
Decision
6 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Roman Bogatov72%
Leonardo Santos 28%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Roman Bogatov a 72% favorite over Leonardo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1691), separated by just 13 points.

Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Leonardo Santos finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Roman Bogatov 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.