Leonardo Santos vs Stevie Ray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record26-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamHigher Level MMA
What's at stake
Leonardo Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Stevie Ray carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1692
If they lose-18→ 1660
If they win+18→ 1662
If they lose-14→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo SantosStevie Ray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stevie Ray58%
Leonardo Santos 42%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Stevie Ray a 58% favorite over Leonardo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Santos's way (45%).
Leonardo Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1644, a 34-point edge.
Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Stevie Ray enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Santos finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.