Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Silva vs Nick Roehrick

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record9-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
75"Reach41,0"
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
China TeamTeamElevation Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Leonardo SilvaNow 1616
If they win+12→ 1628
If they lose-12→ 1604
Nick RoehrickNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.07
Sig. strikes / min
2.31
40%
Strike accuracy
18%
0.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.92
50%
Strike defense
44%
24.11
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Leonardo SilvaNick Roehrick
160016502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (55%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
4 (18%)
Submission
2 (22%)
6 (27%)
Decision
5 (56%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Roehrick59%
Leonardo Silva 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Roehrick a 59% favorite over Leonardo Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1616 vs 1618), separated by just 2 points.

Leonardo Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Leonardo Silva finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nick Roehrick 44%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.