Leslie Smith vs Rin Nakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-9-1Record27-2-1
FeatherweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'1"
66,0"Reach36,0"
145 lbsWeight125 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamShooto Dojo Shikoku
What's at stake
Rin Nakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Leslie Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1612
If they lose-8→ 1580
If they win+6→ 1771
If they lose-18→ 1747
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leslie SmithRin Nakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rin Nakai83%
Leslie Smith 17%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Rin Nakai a 83% favorite over Leslie Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Rin Nakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1588, a 177-point edge.
Rin Nakai enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Leslie Smith finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Rin Nakai 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.