Combat Edge Intelligence

Lewis McGrillen vs Movsar Ibragimov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record8-2-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight140 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamLa Cage

What's at stake

Lewis McGrillen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Movsar Ibragimov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lewis McGrillenNow 1676
If they win+15→ 1691
If they lose-17→ 1659
Movsar IbragimovNow 1661
If they win+17→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Lewis McGrillenMovsar Ibragimov
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (77%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (50%)
2 (15%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Lewis McGrillen and Movsar Ibragimov within a point of even.

Lewis McGrillen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1676 to 1661, a 15-point edge.

Lewis McGrillen finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Movsar Ibragimov 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.