Liam Macfadyen vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-0-0Record17-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'9"
-Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
613 Fight Factory· 1600 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Oyama· 1643 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1655
If they lose-24→ 1607
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Liam MacfadyenLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Smolka55%
Liam Macfadyen 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 55% favorite over Liam Macfadyen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Liam Macfadyen's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1630), separated by just 1 points.
Liam Macfadyen enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Liam Macfadyen finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.