Logan Paxton vs Marcin Held
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record29-10-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
70"Reach39,5"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Nick Diaz Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAnkos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Logan PaxtonMarcin Held
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Logan Paxton71%
Marcin Held 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Logan Paxton a 71% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcin Held's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1679), separated by just 1 points.
Logan Paxton finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Held 66%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.