Logan Paxton vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
70"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nick Diaz Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Stephen Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Logan Paxton carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1695
If they lose-15→ 1663
If they win+15→ 1717
If they lose-17→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Logan PaxtonStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Logan Paxton82%
Stephen Thompson 18%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Logan Paxton a 82% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stephen Thompson's way (47%).
Stephen Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1678, a 24-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Logan Paxton finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Stephen Thompson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.