Lorenz Larkin vs Neil Magny
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-8-0Record31-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
73"Reach80"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Millennia MMATeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
If they win+12→ 1770
If they lose-12→ 1746
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lorenz LarkinNeil Magny
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Neil Magny63%
Lorenz Larkin 37%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Neil Magny a 63% favorite over Lorenz Larkin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lorenz Larkin's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1766 vs 1758), separated by just 8 points.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lorenz Larkin finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Neil Magny 45%.
Neil Magny carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.