Combat Edge Intelligence

Lorenz Larkin vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-8-0Record30-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Millennia MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Santiago Ponzinibbio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+10→ 1776
If they lose-14→ 1752
Santiago PonzinibbioNow 1712
If they win+14→ 1726
If they lose-10→ 1702

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
46%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.74
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
64%
Strike defense
62%
0.27
Takedown avg.
0.60
43%
Takedown accuracy
27%
79%
Takedown defense
71%
0.09
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
17001750202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (56%)
KO/TKO
17 (57%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (20%)
12 (44%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin63%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 37%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 63% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1712, a 54-point edge.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Lorenz Larkin finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.