Lorenz Larkin vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-8-0Record30-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Millennia MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Santiago Ponzinibbio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1776
If they lose-14→ 1752
If they win+14→ 1712
If they lose-10→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Santiago Ponzinibbio51%
Lorenz Larkin 49%Elo baseline: 40%
The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 51% favorite over Lorenz Larkin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lorenz Larkin's way (40%).
Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1698, a 68-point edge.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lorenz Larkin finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.