Lorenz Larkin vs Thad Jean
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-8-0Record12-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'2"
73"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
If they win+16→ 1786
If they lose-16→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lorenz LarkinThad Jean
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thad Jean84%
Lorenz Larkin 16%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Thad Jean a 84% favorite over Lorenz Larkin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1766 vs 1770), separated by just 4 points.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Thad Jean enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Lorenz Larkin finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Thad Jean 58%.
Lorenz Larkin and Thad Jean share 1 common opponent: Mukhamed Berkhamov.
Thad Jean carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.