Louis Smolka vs Mando Gutierrez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record9-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
68"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamMurcielago MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-16→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaMando Gutierrez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mando Gutierrez66%
Louis Smolka 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mando Gutierrez a 66% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Louis Smolka's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1630), separated by just 0 points.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mando Gutierrez 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.