Louis Smolka vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record19-5-1
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'6"
68"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team OyamaTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Matheus Nicolau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Louis Smolka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1643
If they lose-11→ 1619
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-18→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Nicolau61%
Louis Smolka 39%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Nicolau a 61% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Matheus Nicolau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1630, a 33-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Louis Smolka and Matheus Nicolau share 1 common opponent: Matt Schnell.
Louis Smolka carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.