Louis Smolka vs Paddy Holohan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record12-2-1
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'9"
68"Reach39.00
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team OyamaTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
Louis Smolka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paddy Holohan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1639
If they lose-15→ 1615
If they win+29→ 1580
If they lose-19→ 1532
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaPaddy Holohan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Smolka57%
Paddy Holohan 43%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 57% favorite over Paddy Holohan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Louis Smolka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1551, a 79-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Holohan 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.