Louis Smolka vs Richie Vaculik
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record10-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'6"
68"Reach41,0"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team OyamaTeamTP Fight Team
What's at stake
Louis Smolka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Richie Vaculik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1640
If they lose-14→ 1616
If they win+18→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaRichie Vaculik
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Smolka72%
Richie Vaculik 28%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 72% favorite over Richie Vaculik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Louis Smolka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1577, a 53-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Richie Vaculik enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Richie Vaculik 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.