Louis Smolka vs Ryan MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'11"
68"Reach40.00
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamDisorderly Conduct
What's at stake
Louis Smolka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ryan MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1614
If they win+32→ 1539
If they lose-16→ 1491
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaRyan MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Smolka52%
Ryan MacDonald 48%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 52% favorite over Ryan MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Louis Smolka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1507, a 123-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Ryan MacDonald 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.