Luan Duarte vs Robert Densley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-12-0Record9-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamAbsolute MMA
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Robert Densley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1474
If they lose-17→ 1442
If they win+17→ 1447
If they lose-15→ 1415
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1486 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luan DuarteRobert Densley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte72%
Robert Densley 28%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 72% favorite over Robert Densley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1430, a 29-point edge.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Robert Densley enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Robert Densley 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.