Luan Duarte vs Sam Watford
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
14-12-0Record4-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
-Reach78,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Sam Watford carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1473
If they lose-18→ 1441
If they win+18→ 1439
If they lose-14→ 1407
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luan DuarteSam Watford
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte76%
Sam Watford 24%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 76% favorite over Sam Watford in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1421, a 38-point edge.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sam Watford enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Sam Watford 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.