Luan Duarte vs Steve Lopez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-12-0Record13-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Steve Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1473
If they lose-18→ 1441
If they win+27→ 1444
If they lose-21→ 1396
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luan DuarteSteve Lopez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte84%
Steve Lopez 16%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 84% favorite over Steve Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1417, a 42-point edge.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Steve Lopez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Steve Lopez 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.