Combat Edge Intelligence

Luan Lacerda vs Marlon Moraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record23-13-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'6"
71"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luan LacerdaNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Marlon MoraesNow 1653
If they win+12→ 1665
If they lose-12→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
44%
Strike accuracy
41%
7.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.53
48%
Strike defense
54%
1.26
Takedown avg.
0.87
25%
Takedown accuracy
42%
75%
Takedown defense
46%
0.63
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Luan LacerdaMarlon Moraes
165017001750202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
10 (43%)
11 (85%)
Submission
6 (26%)
2 (15%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Luan Lacerda70%
Marlon Moraes 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luan Lacerda a 70% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marlon Moraes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1653), separated by just 1 points.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.

Luan Lacerda finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Moraes 70%.

Luan Lacerda carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.