Combat Edge Intelligence

Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record18-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
71"Reach72"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamAstra Fight Team

What's at stake

Luan Lacerda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Saimon Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Luan LacerdaNow 1652
If they win+13→ 1665
If they lose-19→ 1633
Saimon OliveiraNow 1595
If they win+19→ 1614
If they lose-13→ 1582

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
2.67
44%
Strike accuracy
40%
7.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.13
48%
Strike defense
47%
1.26
Takedown avg.
1.07
25%
Takedown accuracy
25%
75%
Takedown defense
39%
0.63
Submission avg.
1.43

Trajectory

Luan LacerdaSaimon Oliveira
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
11 (85%)
Submission
11 (61%)
2 (15%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Luan Lacerda71%
Saimon Oliveira 29%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Luan Lacerda a 71% favorite over Saimon Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Luan Lacerda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1595, a 57-point edge.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Luan Lacerda finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Saimon Oliveira 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.