Combat Edge Intelligence

Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record10-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
67"Reach68"
139 lbsWeight125 lbs
011 MMATeamMMA Science Academy

What's at stake

Luana Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Mariya Agapova carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Luana SantosNow 1692
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-20→ 1672
Mariya AgapovaNow 1613
If they win+20→ 1633
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
4.43
53%
Strike accuracy
55%
2.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.62
64%
Strike defense
52%
2.17
Takedown avg.
0.55
47%
Takedown accuracy
67%
86%
Takedown defense
45%
1.21
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Luana SantosMariya Agapova
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
5 (45%)
Submission
5 (50%)
5 (45%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Luana Santos87%
Mariya Agapova 13%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Luana Santos a 87% favorite over Mariya Agapova in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Luana Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1613, a 79-point edge.

Luana Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Luana Santos finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Mariya Agapova 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.