Combat Edge Intelligence

Luca Borando vs Mike Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record11-2-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-Reach71"
161 lbsWeight170 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1581 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luca BorandoNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Mike GravesNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.80
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Luca BorandoMike Graves
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
1 (11%)
Submission
3 (27%)
1 (11%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Luca Borando57%
Mike Graves 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luca Borando a 57% favorite over Mike Graves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Luca Borando enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Luca Borando finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.