Lucas Almeida vs Mandel Nallo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74.5"Reach75"
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1648 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1502 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlmeidaMandel Nallo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Almeida56%
Mandel Nallo 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Almeida a 56% favorite over Mandel Nallo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1634), separated by just 1 points.
Lucas Almeida finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mandel Nallo 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.