Lucas Alexander vs Marco Polo Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record16-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"ReachTBD
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fusion X-Cel Performance· 1623 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamEntram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlexanderMarco Polo Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marco Polo Reyes53%
Lucas Alexander 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marco Polo Reyes a 53% favorite over Lucas Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Alexander's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1576), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marco Polo Reyes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Alexander finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Marco Polo Reyes 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.