Lucas Almeida vs Matt Bessette
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record25-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
71"Reach39,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KioshiTeamUnderdog Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-16→ 1648
If they win+12→ 1677
If they lose-12→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlmeidaMatt Bessette
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Almeida70%
Matt Bessette 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Almeida a 70% favorite over Matt Bessette in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Bessette's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1664 vs 1665), separated by just 1 points.
Lucas Almeida finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Matt Bessette 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.