Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Almeida vs Michael Trizano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record10-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
71"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight148 lbs
Team KioshiTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann

What's at stake

Michael Trizano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Lucas Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lucas AlmeidaNow 1651
If they win+17→ 1668
If they lose-15→ 1636
Michael TrizanoNow 1666
If they win+15→ 1681
If they lose-17→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.94
Sig. strikes / min
3.63
40%
Strike accuracy
54%
5.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
45%
Strike defense
51%
0
Takedown avg.
0.36
0%
Takedown accuracy
67%
54%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

Lucas AlmeidaMichael Trizano
165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
5 (33%)
Submission
2 (20%)
1 (7%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Trizano63%
Lucas Almeida 37%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Trizano a 63% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Michael Trizano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1651, a 15-point edge.

Lucas Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lucas Almeida finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Michael Trizano 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.