Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Almeida vs Mike Grundy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'8"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KioshiTeamTeam Kaobon Wigan

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lucas AlmeidaNow 1651
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Mike GrundyNow 1649
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.94
Sig. strikes / min
2.09
40%
Strike accuracy
45%
5.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.45
45%
Strike defense
56%
0
Takedown avg.
4.06
0%
Takedown accuracy
28%
54%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Lucas AlmeidaMike Grundy
1650170020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
5 (33%)
Submission
8 (67%)
1 (7%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Almeida56%
Mike Grundy 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Almeida a 56% favorite over Mike Grundy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1649), separated by just 2 points.

Lucas Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Grundy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Lucas Almeida finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Mike Grundy 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.