Lucas Almeida vs Pat Sabatini
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record22-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KioshiTeamRenzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Pat Sabatini is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Lucas Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1672
If they lose-11→ 1640
If they win+8→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1748
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Pat Sabatini79%
Lucas Almeida 21%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Pat Sabatini a 79% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Pat Sabatini holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1764 to 1651, a 113-point edge.
Lucas Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Lucas Almeida finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Pat Sabatini 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.