Lucas Brennan vs Shane Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record16-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Next Generation MMA FriscoTeamBJ Penn's MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas BrennanShane Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Brennan68%
Shane Nelson 32%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Brennan a 68% favorite over Shane Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1641), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Brennan finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Shane Nelson 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.