Lucas Gabriel vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas GabrielNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Gabriel60%
Nate Diaz 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Gabriel a 60% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1674), separated by just 1 points.
Lucas Gabriel enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Lucas Gabriel finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.