Lucas Gabriel vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0 Record 21-14-0
Welterweight Division Welterweight
5'9" Height 6'0"
74" Reach 76"
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
Nova Uniao Phuket Team Cesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas Gabriel Nate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Gabriel76%
Nate Diaz24%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Gabriel a 76% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nate Diaz's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1674), separated by just 3 points.
Lucas Gabriel enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Lucas Gabriel finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.