Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Martins vs Mirsad Bektić

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record13-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Capital da LutaTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lucas MartinsNow 1680
If they win+12→ 1692
If they lose-12→ 1668
Mirsad BektićNow 1677
If they win+16→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.87
Sig. strikes / min
2.43
36%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.80
60%
Strike defense
58%
0
Takedown avg.
3.98
0%
Takedown accuracy
53%
77%
Takedown defense
92%
0.49
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Lucas MartinsMirsad Bektić
1700175020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

14 (64%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
5 (23%)
Submission
3 (23%)
3 (14%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Mirsad Bektić54%
Lucas Martins 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mirsad Bektić a 54% favorite over Lucas Martins in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Martins's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1680 vs 1677), separated by just 3 points.

Mirsad Bektić enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Lucas Martins finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Mirsad Bektić 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.