Lucas Nascimento vs Rafael Aronov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record9-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'1"
-Reach-
160 lbsWeight171 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1584
If they lose-15→ 1552
If they win+15→ 1594
If they lose-17→ 1562
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas NascimentoRafael Aronov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Nascimento59%
Rafael Aronov 41%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Nascimento a 59% favorite over Rafael Aronov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Aronov's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1579), separated by just 12 points.
Lucas Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Rafael Aronov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lucas Nascimento finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Aronov 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.