Lucas Nascimento vs Vadim Ogar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record10-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'9"
-Reach-
160 lbsWeight157 lbs
GOR MMA· 1706 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe· 1645 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Lucas Nascimento is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Vadim Ogar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1581
If they lose-18→ 1549
If they win+18→ 1539
If they lose-14→ 1507
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas NascimentoVadim Ogar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Nascimento73%
Vadim Ogar 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Nascimento a 73% favorite over Vadim Ogar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Lucas Nascimento holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1567 to 1521, a 46-point edge.
Lucas Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Vadim Ogar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Nascimento finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Vadim Ogar 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.