Lucas Rocha vs Rashid Vagabov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-2-0Record15-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'7"
64"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Renovacao Coari Team· 1671 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamAbdulmanap Nurmagomedov School· 1710 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1567 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas RochaRashid Vagabov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Rocha60%
Rashid Vagabov 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 60% favorite over Rashid Vagabov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1697), separated by just 0 points.
Rashid Vagabov enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Lucas Rocha finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rashid Vagabov 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.