Lucas Silva vs Vagner Gaúcho
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-0-0Record5-2-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight145 lbs
TeamDyogo Teles MMA
What's at stake
Lucas Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Vagner Gaúcho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1610
If they lose-27→ 1562
If they win+27→ 1574
If they lose-21→ 1526
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas SilvaVagner Gaúcho
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Silva53%
Vagner Gaúcho 47%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Silva a 53% favorite over Vagner Gaúcho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Lucas Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1589 to 1547, a 42-point edge.
Lucas Silva enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Lucas Silva finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Vagner Gaúcho 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.