Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Stark vs Taisei Mizusugi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

1-5-0Record6-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'9"
TBDReach-
153 lbsWeight156 lbs
TeamblooM

What's at stake

Taisei Mizusugi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Lucas Stark carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lucas StarkNow 1448
If they win+26→ 1474
If they lose-22→ 1426
Taisei MizusugiNow 1470
If they win+15→ 1485
If they lose-17→ 1453

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Lucas StarkTaisei Mizusugi
14001450150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (17%)
1 (100%)
Decision
3 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Taisei Mizusugi70%
Lucas Stark 30%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Taisei Mizusugi a 70% favorite over Lucas Stark in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Taisei Mizusugi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1448, a 22-point edge.

Lucas Stark enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Taisei Mizusugi 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.