Luis Pena vs Matt Wiman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record16-10-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height5'10"
TBDReach68,0"
161 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top Team SunriseTeamSkrap Pack
What's at stake
Luis Pena is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Wiman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1654
If they lose-18→ 1622
If they win+13→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luis PenaMatt Wiman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luis Pena74%
Matt Wiman 26%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Luis Pena a 74% favorite over Matt Wiman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Luis Pena holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1604, a 36-point edge.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Luis Pena finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Matt Wiman 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.