Combat Edge Intelligence

Luis Pena vs Michael Trizano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luis Pena
us

Luis Pena

“Violent Bob Ross”

12-6-0WelterweightAFS

1640Solid

Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record10-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height5'11"
TBDReach71"
161 lbsWeight148 lbs
American Top Team SunriseTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann

What's at stake

Michael Trizano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Luis Pena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Luis PenaNow 1640
If they win+17→ 1657
If they lose-15→ 1625
Michael TrizanoNow 1666
If they win+15→ 1681
If they lose-17→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.63
47%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
51%
Strike defense
51%
1.17
Takedown avg.
0.36
33%
Takedown accuracy
67%
48%
Takedown defense
73%
1.17
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

Luis PenaMichael Trizano
16501700202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
5 (42%)
Submission
2 (20%)
4 (33%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Trizano53%
Luis Pena 47%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Trizano a 53% favorite over Luis Pena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Michael Trizano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1640, a 26-point edge.

Luis Pena finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Michael Trizano 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.