Luis Pena vs Ray Hayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
161 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luis PenaRay Hayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ray Hayes66%
Luis Pena 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ray Hayes a 66% favorite over Luis Pena in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luis Pena's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1640), separated by just 0 points.
Ray Hayes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Luis Pena finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ray Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.