Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record19-6-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'3"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
161 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top Team SunriseTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Steve Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Luis Pena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1622
If they win+9→ 1732
If they lose-15→ 1708
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luis PenaSteve Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Garcia84%
Luis Pena 16%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Garcia a 84% favorite over Luis Pena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Steve Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1634, a 89-point edge.
Luis Pena finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steve Garcia 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.