Luiz Dutra vs Tom Breese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-1Record21-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReach73.5"
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
Renovacao Fight TeamTeamTeam Renegade· 1737 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Tom Breese is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Luiz Dutra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+37→ 1512
If they lose-11→ 1464
If they win+6→ 1688
If they lose-18→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Luiz DutraTom Breese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Breese85%
Luiz Dutra 15%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 85% favorite over Luiz Dutra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Tom Breese holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1475, a 207-point edge.
Luiz Dutra enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luiz Dutra finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.