Luke Barnatt vs Mark Munoz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record14-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'6"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tsunami GymTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Mark Munoz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Luke Barnatt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1578
If they lose-9→ 1554
If they win+13→ 1652
If they lose-19→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke BarnattMark Munoz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Munoz66%
Luke Barnatt 34%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Munoz a 66% favorite over Luke Barnatt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Mark Munoz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1563, a 76-point edge.
Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Luke Barnatt finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Mark Munoz 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.