Luke Barnatt vs Mats Nilsson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record11-4-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'6"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tsunami GymTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Mats Nilsson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Luke Barnatt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1581
If they lose-10→ 1557
If they win+14→ 1625
If they lose-18→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Luke BarnattMats Nilsson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Barnatt61%
Mats Nilsson 39%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Barnatt a 61% favorite over Mats Nilsson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mats Nilsson's way (44%).
Mats Nilsson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1611 to 1567, a 44-point edge.
Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luke Barnatt finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Mats Nilsson 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.