Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Barnatt vs Mats Nilsson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-10-0Record11-4-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'6"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tsunami GymTeamRumble Sports

What's at stake

Mats Nilsson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Luke Barnatt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Luke BarnattNow 1563
If they win+14→ 1577
If they lose-10→ 1553
Mats NilssonNow 1612
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-18→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.43
Sig. strikes / min
2.99
36%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.62
59%
Strike defense
64%
0.63
Takedown avg.
3.87
43%
Takedown accuracy
83%
64%
Takedown defense
44%
0.42
Submission avg.
2.32

Trajectory

Luke BarnattMats Nilsson
15501600165020132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
4 (27%)
Submission
5 (45%)
2 (13%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Mats Nilsson63%
Luke Barnatt 37%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Mats Nilsson a 63% favorite over Luke Barnatt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Mats Nilsson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1563, a 49-point edge.

Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Luke Barnatt finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Mats Nilsson 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.