Luke Barnatt vs Roger Narvaez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record8-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'6"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tsunami GymTeamFull Contact Fight Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1575
If they lose-12→ 1551
If they win+16→ 1589
If they lose-16→ 1557
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke BarnattRoger Narvaez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roger Narvaez56%
Luke Barnatt 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Roger Narvaez a 56% favorite over Luke Barnatt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1563 vs 1573), separated by just 10 points.
Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roger Narvaez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luke Barnatt finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Roger Narvaez 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.