Luke Barnatt vs Sean Strickland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record31-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'6"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tsunami GymTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Sean Strickland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Luke Barnatt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1583
If they lose-4→ 1559
If they win+4→ 1827
If they lose-20→ 1803
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1742 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke BarnattSean Strickland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Strickland92%
Luke Barnatt 8%Elo baseline: 82%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 92% favorite over Luke Barnatt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (82%).
Sean Strickland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1563, a 260-point edge.
Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Luke Barnatt finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Sean Strickland 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.