Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-17-0Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamElite Mixed Fighters
What's at stake
Marcus Aurelio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Luke Caudillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1528
If they lose-8→ 1504
If they win+8→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Luke CaudilloMarcus Aurelio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Luke Caudillo and Marcus Aurelio within a point of even.
Marcus Aurelio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1512, a 136-point edge.
Luke Caudillo finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.